Elias Halvorson Mortgage Loan Officer NMLS# 1697041

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I will soon start a newsletter, but for now please check out the weekly review. The Stock Market: The stock market has reversed course and is experiencing more declines than increases in the last week. Volatility day-to-day has been running in the many hundreds in both directions. The challenge is trying to understand the reason for all the movement. When you dig into the news and headlines that are the implied reasons for the market volatility, in most cases it appears tha...t there is little more going on than investor overaction. Mortgage Activity: Mortgage applications are back on the rise. The latest application data released from the Mortgage Bankers Association of America is showing huge increases in mortgage activity from the same time last year. Refinances are higher by 3% from the prior week, but they are 60% above the same week last year. Purchase applications are higher from last year by 40%, and also are up by 3% from the prior week. Employment Data: Investors became a little spooked on Thursday when the latest unemployment data was released. First-time jobless claims were reported at 884,000. Analysts were expecting lower claims around 840,000. This is the fourth straight week of rising claims, and it is raising concerns that the labor market may be stalling. One speculative reason for the increase by some analysts is that the increases may be due to President Trump’s executive order initializing a federal $300 stipend to standard state unemployment benefits. This comes as a replacement to the initial $600 federal benefit that expired in July. 9-11 Remembrance This year's anniversary tributes to the 9-11 attacks are going to be different. Due to the Coronavirus and social distancing protocols. The tributes will be held, but there are many restrictions related to the number of attendees, and the elimination of stages in which traditionally the names of the fallen are read out loud. The twin beam of lights will return once again after the uproar on social media when it was suggested they would be canceled this year. Next week’s potential market moving reports are: Monday, September 14th No Reports Tuesday, September 15th Industrial Production Wednesday, September 16th Retail Sales, NAHB Homebuilders’ Index Thursday, September 17th - First Time Jobless Claims, Housing Starts, Building Permits Friday, September 18th No Reports As your mortgage and real estate professional, I am happy to assist you with any information you may need regarding mortgage or real estate trends. I welcome the opportunity to serve you in any way I possibly can. Please feel free to reach out at 808-517-6416.

There is a lot of talk about rising interest rates and their impact on the housing market. Some believe that even though rates continue to remain extremely low by historical standards, any increase from the record lows could slow housing purchases. However, what many people do not understand is the difference between available inventory and purchaser demand. The easiest way to explain it is by imagining a circle 100 feet in circumference, filled with buyers wanting to purch...ase a home. Now imagine another circle 20 feet wide filled with properties for sale. It is clear housing demand is far higher than what is available. The housing market is currently like this, so there are bidding wars for purchases in almost EVERY market in the country. Let’s project forward to mildly higher interest rates (3s). The 100-foot circle of buyers may reduce to half of its size to, let's say, 50 feet. Housing inventory is not increasing, so the 20-foot circle of sellers remains the same. In this scenario, which is already beginning to show signs that it is happening, it still provides for more than double the number of buyers as there are properties for sale. The market in this highly likely example will not get much relief from rising prices and bidding wars. For rising home prices and bidding wars to end, mortgage rates would have to rise significantly, and sellers would need to place many more homes for sale in the Spring market. With the economy continuing to recover slowly, the chances of both of these circumstances occurring is exceptionally slim. Construction Spending: There is no let-up in the construction sector for single-family residential homes. Spending on residential construction was up 2.5% from December. Spending compared to December of 2020 is higher by 21%. The numbers for single-family construction are even more impressive heading into 2021. Construction spending is up 2.5% from the prior month and much higher from the previous year by 24.2%. Employment: Fridays national jobs report showed that job growth is accelerating. The combination of a stronger than expected employment report for February, plus an upward revision to January, is a clear sign that the economy is mending. Next weeks potential market moving reports are: Monday, March 8th Wholesale Inventories Tuesday, March 9th NFIB Small Business Index Wednesday, March 10th Consumer Price Index Thursday, March 11th First Time Jobless Claims, Job Openings Friday, March 12th Producer Price Index As your mortgage and real estate professional, I am happy to assist you with any information you may need regarding mortgage or real estate trends. I welcome the opportunity to serve you in any way I possibly can. Please feel free to reach me at 808-517-6416 .

Veterans and members - you aren't just another number here... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iQB-KKQ8mNo